Texas Senate Showdown: Paxton to Challenge Cornyn

Ken Paxton Prepares for Potential Senate Challenge Against John Cornyn

Ken Paxton, the Texas Attorney General, is gearing up to take on Senator John Cornyn in what could be a highly contentious and costly Republican primary for the 2026 election. In an interview conducted in Dallas this week, Paxton hinted at his Senate aspirations, discussing potential legislative priorities like tax cuts and expressing his belief that he could influence federal policies more effectively than he has been able to do as Attorney General in Texas.

During the interview, Paxton elaborated on the motivation behind his consideration to enter the Senate race. He asserted, "I just think there’s a lot of things that you could do at the federal level." He noted the importance of having a supportive voice in the Senate for former President Donald Trump, indicating that he sees himself as a steadfast ally of Trump’s agenda, contrasting his views sharply with Cornyn’s more moderate stance.

Although he did not officially announce his candidacy, the growing speculation about a primary challenge to Cornyn signifies a significant shift within the Texas Republican landscape. Paxton’s increasing criticisms of Cornyn highlight a broader battle within the party, pitting the old guard against a rising faction of hard-right social conservatives who have become emboldened by Trump’s influence.

The prospect of a primary showdown has not gone unnoticed. Colin Allred, a former Democratic congressman who unsuccessfully challenged Senator Ted Cruz in the previous election cycle, has indicated he might also enter the race and offered a tongue-in-cheek message to Cornyn—"Good luck with your primary, John."

Internal polling suggests that Paxton could have the upper hand among Republican primary voters, with surveys indicating he might lead Cornyn by a substantial margin. A poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, known for its affiliations with Trump, projects Paxton ahead of Cornyn by 25 percentage points, especially when framing Cornyn as the more moderate figure in the race.

These polling numbers align with a nonpartisan survey from the University of Houston that found Republicans are more inclined to "definitely consider" voting for Paxton over Cornyn. The internal data also demonstrated Paxton’s greater favorability ratings among Republican voters, further complicating Cornyn’s reelection efforts.

John Cornyn, who has been a fixture of Texas politics for over three decades, faces challenges in this evolving political atmosphere. As a former Texas attorney general and state Supreme Court judge, Cornyn has been in the Senate since 2002. His long tenure in the red state comes with expectations, particularly after Texas transitioned into a solidly Republican stronghold. He has previously been seen as a potential Senate majority leader but lost that prospect to Senator John Thune after Mitch McConnell’s retirement from the position last year, diminishing his influence within the party.

Cornyn’s mixed record on certain policies has not sit well with conservatives. His participation in bipartisan discussions on gun control legislation following the tragic school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, has particularly alienated segments of the Republican base. His efforts earned him public scorn at a Republican Party of Texas convention, where he faced loud booing, indicating a disconnect with the party’s grassroots activists.

Paxton pointed to Cornyn’s declining rapport with voters during these events, suggesting that the incumbent senator had lost touch with his constituency. Cornyn officially announced his reelection campaign last month, emphasizing his close ties to Trump. In a campaign video, he declared, “In President Trump’s first term, I was Republican whip, delivering the votes for his biggest wins. Now I’m running for re-election and asking for your support, so President Trump and I can pick up where we left off.”

However, Paxton’s path to challenging Cornyn is laden with hurdles. While he has garnered considerable support, particularly from a base energized by Trump’s politics, his own history is marred by numerous ethical controversies and legal challenges. For years, Paxton has navigated through allegations of corruption and a separate indictment for securities fraud, which he has dismissed as political attacks against him.

Despite these challenges, Paxton believes an endorsement from Trump would significantly boost his campaign, indicating he has been in communication with people close to the former president about his potential candidacy. In response to inquiries about dealing with Trump’s potential third term in office, Paxton expressed uncertainty, acknowledging the constitutional limits yet emphasizing that it remains a hypothetical scenario.

As Paxton weighs his options, he acknowledges that his decision to officially declare his campaign will hinge on securing sufficient financial resources, estimating that around $20 million would be necessary to mount a credible challenge against Cornyn.

In the broader context, both candidates represent contrasting visions for the future of the Texas Republican Party, with Paxton aligning himself firmly with the hard-right populist agenda and Cornyn attempting to uphold a more traditional conservative approach. As the 2026 election approaches, this primary battle seems poised to redefine the party dynamics in Texas in a significant way, capturing national attention as factions within the Republican Party continue to clash.