Johnson’s Budget Victory Relies on Trump for Governance

Speaker Mike Johnson’s Narrow Victory Highlights Dependence on Trump

This past week, Speaker Mike Johnson achieved a significant yet precarious victory in the House by passing a Republican budget resolution, demonstrating the fragility of his hold over a divided majority. His success came amidst considerable uncertainty, revealing his heavy reliance on former President Donald Trump to rally his fellow Republicans.

In an admission of the high stakes involved, Johnson told reporters on Tuesday night that he had no backup plan in the event of a failure. As he entered the chamber for a vote that he believed could potentially lead to defeat, it was clear that his strategy hinged entirely on Trump’s influence. The former president made critical phone calls that ultimately persuaded a handful of Republicans who had been hesitant to support the budget, crucial for advancing what Trump described as “one big beautiful bill.”

Following the vote, Johnson acknowledged Trump’s pivotal role. He noted, "The president was a big help," underscoring the extent to which he has become reliant on Trump to navigate the challenges posed by his narrow majority and a diverse group of Republican members with varying perspectives. It was Trump who successfully lobbied Representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee, who initially opposed the bill. After a 15-minute conversation with Trump, Burchett switched his vote to “yes.” Likewise, Representative Victoria Spartz of Indiana was seen visibly emotional while conversing with Trump just moments before casting her vote.

The dynamics at play echo previous patterns within the GOP, particularly during Johnson’s own ascension to the speaker role in January. In that instance, he too was on the verge of losing, but Trump, interrupting his golf game, stepped in to aid Johnson by reaching out to potential holdouts. This reliance on Trump reflects a broader trend within the Republican Party, as demonstrated by Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy. Upon gaining the speakership in 2023, McCarthy took the opportunity to thank Trump extensively, acknowledging his influence even when Trump was politically sidelined at Mar-a-Lago.

While Johnson earned some credit for managing to push the budget resolution through the House with only a one-vote margin of error, the path ahead remains fraught with obstacles. Brendan Buck, a former counselor to past Speakers Paul Ryan and Boehner, noted the risks Johnson took by bringing the vote to the floor without absolute certainty of securing enough support. “That takes some gumption — being able to stare down a lot of these members and having them fold,” Buck remarked.

On social media, Trump celebrated the victory, referring to it as a significant win for both Johnson and the nation. Hours prior to the vote, Representative Tom Emmer, the No. 3 House Republican, emphasized Trump’s crucial role in the party’s success, characterizing the trio of Republican control over the House, Senate, and White House as the "Trump trifecta."

Johnson also provided what some interpreted as a veiled warning to Republicans who might oppose Trump’s agenda, asserting, “Everybody wants to be on this train, and not in front of it.” This statement served as a reminder of the power dynamics at play within the GOP.

Meanwhile, some House Republicans representing vulnerable, competitive districts faced backlash and had to justify their votes for the budget resolution, which could potentially initiate cuts to Medicaid. They attempted to use Trump’s commitment to preserving Medicaid as political cover. Rob Bresnahan Jr., a Pennsylvania Republican newly elected from a swing district, stated, “Last night’s vote was just a procedural step to start federal budget negotiations and does NOT change any current laws.” He emphasized his commitment to protecting working-class families, aligning himself with Trump against significant cuts to the Medicaid program.

Democrats, however, warned that the cuts being discussed by the Energy and Commerce Committee would lead to the most drastic reductions in Medicaid history, raising alarms about the potential consequences of the budget resolution.

Celebrating after the vote, Johnson acknowledged that moving forward with Trump’s agenda would not be an easy task. “We’re going to celebrate tonight,” he said, even as he recognized that navigating the complexities of the budget process following this initial victory would prove to be the more challenging aspect of their legislative strategy.

As Johnson now faces the Senate’s consideration of the budget plan, he may find himself needing to negotiate and potentially compromise on elements of the resolution, especially as some members of his party insist that the current version does not align with what they feel can pass in the Senate. Buck pointed out, “The resolution that they passed seemed incompatible with what can get through the Senate. Now it gets much harder.” This will require Johnson to maintain unity within the ranks of the Republican Party, all while keeping Trump’s backing close at hand.