Instagram and YouTube Set to Gain If TikTok Faces Ban

Meta Prepares for Potential TikTok Ban: Executives Outline Strategy Amid U.S. Political Developments

On Wednesday afternoon, executives at Meta held an employee Q&A session to discuss the current situation of American politics and its possible implications for the company. Chief Marketing Officer Alex Schultz took center stage to address inquiries regarding Meta’s posture toward the incoming Trump administration, as well as the company’s uncertain international standing. According to two attendees, Schultz emphasized the significance of closely observing one of Meta’s main competitors: TikTok.

Schultz noted that should TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, face a ban in the United States—a scenario that appears increasingly plausible—Meta must be prepared for a major transformation in how Americans utilize social media. He articulated that Meta could potentially benefit from TikTok’s predicament but underscored the necessity for the company to strategize accordingly.

With a suite of platforms that includes Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads, Meta has a vested interest in the outcome of ongoing discussions surrounding TikTok. The contentious federal law requiring ByteDance to divest its American operations, or face a ban, is currently under scrutiny by the Supreme Court. If the law takes effect, TikTok’s 170 million monthly users in the U.S. could be left without their preferred app, creating an opportunity for Meta and other platforms like YouTube and Snapchat to attract these displaced users.

In preparation for a potential influx of so-called "TikTok refugees," Meta has reportedly mobilized teams aimed at capturing as many of these users as possible. Three individuals familiar with the company’s plans disclosed that there are efforts underway to engage TikTok’s popular influencers actively and to make enhancements to Instagram that would align with the features that TikTok users find appealing. Instagram hosts a short-form video feature called Reels, designed to compete directly with TikTok.

Richard Kramer, a financial analyst at Arete Research, commented, “Instagram is a natural home for TikTok creators and users. Like TikTok, Instagram offers functionalities for online shopping and maintains a high level of user engagement.” This sentiment reflects the broader strategy by which Meta would seek to capitalize on any shifts in user behavior should TikTok be restricted in the U.S.

YouTube, too, is not standing still in the face of potential changes in the social media landscape. The platform has made adjustments to its interface, particularly with the introduction of YouTube Shorts, which provides users with a vertical video format tailored to appeal to TikTok creators. In an effort to entice these creators, YouTube has recently extended the maximum length of Shorts videos from one minute to three minutes, catering to the preferences of TikTok users whose videos can be as long as ten minutes. The company also organized a YouTube Shopping "boot camp," inviting creators using both its platform and TikTok to improve their proficiency on YouTube.

In a statement, a Meta spokesperson acknowledged that the company is monitoring developments in this highly competitive environment. They reiterated that, “Like other apps and services in this highly competitive space, we’re of course assessing what various potential scenarios could mean for our products.” Similarly, a YouTube representative confirmed that the company routinely conducts boot camps aimed at educating creators about product features.

Both Meta and Google have anticipated the possibility of a TikTok ban for years, with preparations ramping up significantly after President Biden signed a bill into law in April, demanding ByteDance divest TikTok or face a ban in the U.S. TikTok has retaliated by suing the federal government, with the case now elevated to the Supreme Court.

In public discussions, both Meta and Google have remained relatively reserved about their strategies in the event of a TikTok ban. However, behind the scenes, the companies have been extensively planning, including considerations for reallocating internal resources to address the anticipated influx of users. During the Meta meeting, executives deliberated over how to facilitate the transition for TikTok users migrating to Instagram, which may include options to transfer their TikTok videos directly to the platform.

According to John Blackledge, an analyst at TD Cowen, Instagram and YouTube would gain an incremental increase in both revenue and user engagement if TikTok were banned, but he suggested that Instagram holds a distinct advantage in attracting users. A survey conducted by TD Cowen revealed that a significant portion of U.S. internet users intend to gravitate toward Instagram Reels if TikTok is prohibited. Specifically, 29% indicated they would turn to Reels, while 23% would prefer YouTube Shorts, and 15% would search for a new app entirely.

Among advertisers, the preference for Instagram became even clearer: 56% of ad buyers noted that their clients were most eager to invest in advertising through Instagram Reels this year, compared to just 24% for YouTube Shorts and 20% for TikTok.

However, the competition for TikTok’s user base extends beyond Meta and Google. Substack, a newsletter platform, recently announced a $25,000 “TikTok Liberation Prize” to incentivize creators whose videos successfully encourage TikTok users to join Substack, regardless of TikTok’s fate. Additionally, Clapper, a TikTok-like short-video app, has offered creators up to $200 for each promotional video made for its platform. Similarly, Xiaohongshu, another app akin to TikTok, has seen sudden growth in popularity following the rising uncertainty surrounding TikTok.

In this evolving landscape, content creators remain cautious rather than placing all their hopes on any single platform. Sammi Scotto, a TikTok creator and advisor to other creators, stated, “I’ll be focused on Instagram, YouTube, and LinkedIn, but keeping my eye on the others.” This reflects a prudent approach in a rapidly shifting social media environment where the future remains uncertain.